Baker & O'Brien, Inc.

Services

Service Details

PRISM™ Industry Modeling and Database

Baker & O'Brien's PRISM™ modeling system has proven to be a powerful tool for analysis of individual refineries and the refining and marketing supply chain.  Initially conceived and developed over 14 years ago, the PRISM system has been updated and expanded into one of the most flexible and comprehensive refining industry analysis tools available on the market today.  The PRISM system combines a large historical technical/economic database (the “Database”) with a robust refinery simulator (the “Simulator”).

 

PRISM map

Data Available

 

The PRISM Database includes current and historical information on essentially all world-wide refineries with capacities of 40,000 barrels per day and above.  Calibrated, mass-balanced models are available for 286 of these refineries, including all U.S. and Canadian refineries, 89 refineries in Europe, and 55 Asia-Pacific refineries.  PRISM licensees can subscribe to any or all of four Data Services:  the U.S., Canada, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

 

 

Related Experience

  • Asian Refinery Study
    Assisted client in building PRISM refinery models of several Southeast Asian refineries.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Bitumen Economics/Refinery Reconfiguration
    Using the PRISM refinery simulator, calculated the economics of replacing the current refinery crude slate with Canadian synthetic-bitumen (syn-bit) or condensate-bitumen (dil-bit) blends. Cases were considered with and without capital investments and potential investment costs were also estimated.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Crude Oil Valuation, Pricing, Product Quality
  • Bitumen Processing Study
    Used our proprietary PRISM refinery model to determine the bitumen processing capability of several U.S. refineries.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Product Quality
  • Bitumen Valuation
    Reviewed historical supply and demand of high TAN crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast refineries and addressed future trends which would impact a TAN discount.  Estimated a TAN discount using two methodologies:  Market based approach and Return on Capital investment approach.  Calculated the impact on bitumen value as a result of asphaltenes content.  Calculated the value added by a diluent recovery unit in a Canadian Oil Sands upgrader.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Crude Oil Valuation, Pricing, Product Quality
  • Carbon Dioxide Forecast
    Using the PRISM refinery simulator, calculated and compared the carbon dioxide emissions for two processing options: (1) a bitumen upgrader in Canada combined with a refinery in the U.S. versus; (2) an integrated upgrader/refinery at the U.S. location.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Contractual Dispute - Property Tax
    Prepared an analysis of property taxes relative to refining complexity for a number of refineries in a particular region, using public information, for hearings with a district appraisal board.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Ad Valorem Taxes, Physical Asset Appraisal, Pricing
  • Crude Oil Marketing Study
    Provided support to a major Canadian crude oil pipeline transporter in the customization of the PRISM model, Baker & O'Brien's proprietary refining industry analysis tool, the company had licensed from Baker & O'Brien. Support included addition of crude oils of specific interest to the client.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pipeline, Product Quality
  • Crude Oil Valuation
    Conducted a valuation for a new grade of Atlantic crude oil production, likely to be marketed to refineries in the U.S. East Coast and U.S. Gulf Coast. The study used PRISM for several specific refineries to calculate refinery breakeven values for the target crude in comparison to several competing grades. The analysis also included a historical review of the calculated relative crude refining values and the key price drivers affecting the value differences between grades.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Crude Oil Valuation, Pricing, Product Quality
  • Crude Oil Supply Study
    Assisted client in constructing a crude oil supply balance for PADD II and developed incremental crude oil valuations for refineries in PADD II using PRISM, Baker & O'Brien's proprietary refining industry analysis tool.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Crude Oil Valuation, Pricing, Product Quality
  • Ethanol Impact on Refinery Margins
    Assessed the impact to U.S. refining margins that would likely result from aggressive growth in ethanol production in the U.S. The study examined the likely distribution of ethanol by PADD under an aggressive ethanol growth scenario, the resulting gasoline supply and demand balances, and the consequent impact on margins over a 10-year period.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Financial Model
    Developed a financial model for a large private equity firm to enable estimates of the future financial performance for the major business segments of a large international refining and petrochemical company.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Gasoline Market Study
    Provided an analysis of the gasoline market in several mid-continent cities, including a twenty-year price forecast for a client considering market entry.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Grassroots Refinery Study
    Built a grassroots refinery model using our proprietary PRISM refinery modeling system. Our client (a PRISM licensee) then used the model to evaluate the economics of various refinery configurations.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • GTL Diesel Blending Study
    Performed several diesel blending studies in different refinery configurations using PRISM to calculate the Green House Gas benefits of using GTL diesel as a potential blendstock.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Product Quality
  • HF Alkylation Restrictions Impact Analysis
    Investigated and analyzed the impact of various potential restrictions on the use of HF alkylation technology in U.S. Refineries.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Impact of Gasoline Toxics Regulations
    Quantified the impact of proposed changes in gasoline toxics regulations (MSAT-II) on each individual refinery in the U.S. Using our proprietary PRISM refinery modeling system, calculated investment costs, changes in operating costs and product yields. Our report was presented in testimony before the U.S. E.P.A.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Expert Witness/Testimony, Pricing
  • Isobutanol Valuation Study
    In order to assess the potential value of isobutanol as a gasoline blending component, performed simulations of refinery operations at a select group of West Coast refineries to calculate isobutanol value relative to blending ethanol into gasoline.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Project Feasibility
  • Market Impact of Low Sulfur Fuels Regulations
    Using our proprietary PRISM refinery modeling system, performed a refinery-by-refinery analysis of potential production of low sulfur fuels by U.S. refineries.  Analysis included the seasonal productions of conventional and reformulated gasolines and ULSD and also included jet fuel and high sulfur diesel production.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Multi-Refinery Synergies
    Analyzed the synergies and economic advantages of companies that operate multiple refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.  Analysis included advantages in crude acquisition; turnaround and routine maintenance; feedstock and product transportation; efficient processing of intermediate streams; and optimal capital investment.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Refinery Evaluation
    Used PRISM, Baker & O'Brien's proprietary refining industry analysis tool, to establish relative refinery profitability for Philadelphia refining system. Developed proposal to install instrumentation upgrades and be paid through a percentage of the improved economic value.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Project Feasibility
  • Supply/Demand Forecast
    Constructed PRISM refinery models of all of the Australian refineries for use by a client for its strategic planning efforts.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Refinery Feasibility Study
    Studied the possible development of a grassroots refinery that included an assessment of the refinery's potential feedstock, refined product yields, operating costs, and earnings capability.  Utilizing Baker & O'Brien's proprietary PRISM refining industry analysis software and data services, developed a ten-year outlook for refining margins/crack spreads, modeled alternative refinery configurations, and conducted a competitive assessment of the proposed refinery compared to key regional competitors.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Project Feasibility
  • RFS Infrastructure Study
    Prepared a report for the American Petroleum Institute (API) that analyzed the potential logistics and infrastructure bottlenecks on a year-by-year basis to 2012 that could result from the industry trying to meet the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Product Quality, Project Feasibility
  • Refinery Competitiveness Study
    Analyzed the relative competitiveness of a group of refineries in a specific region.  The study included an analysis of the local supply and demand balance, and a forecast of product movements into and out of the region.  Using our proprietary PRISM system, modeled each refinery in its current configuration and in its expected configurations eight years in the future.  Profit margins were calculated for each refinery under three different product price scenarios.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • U.S. Refining and Marketing Strategy
    Advised a client on developing strategic options as it relates to future participation in the U.S. refining and marketing sector. Developed scenarios and assessed the medium term outlook for refining and marketing in the U.S. to support client objectives. Prepared short list of potential candidates for acquisition, and developed case studies and recommendations related to post merger integration activities. Advised client on appropriate timing for executing strategic objectives.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Refinery Oil Sands Processing Capability
    Conducted refinery modeling and developed a preliminary assessment of the current and future capabilities of several U.S. refineries for processing diluted bitumen. Prepared initial screening estimates of likely "Phase 1" capital projects for significantly increasing the capability to process blended bitumen. Conducted analysis of likely future competitiveness of same refineries in the regions of operation.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Project Feasibility
  • Refining Strategic Analysis
    Using PRISM, performed a competitor analysis of over 20 refineries that potentially competed with client refinery. Developed refinery cost curves under multiple crude oil and product price scenarios and identified key characteristics of those refineries which operated at the low end of the cost curve.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Refinery Operations Snapshot
    Provided client with an estimate of actual crude runs by grade, product yields, and operating costs for a European refinery in 2007 based on our proprietary PRISM refinery database and simulator.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • U.S. Midcontinent Crude Valuation
    Evaluated crude oil refining values and logistics for several targeted refineries in the U.S. midcontinent area.  Evaluated expected price parity points for domestic crude oils versus competing grades delivered to the refineries via pipeline.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Crude Oil Valuation, Pipeline, Pricing, Product Quality
  • Refinery Competitiveness Study
    Prepared a competitive positioning analysis for a Midwest Refinery that incorporates the impacts of the proposed Cap and Trade legislation in Congress. Addressed the potential financial impacts of Cap and Trade on the refining industry in PADDs 2 and 3.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Environmental, Pricing, Project Feasibility
  • U.S. Refinery Competitiveness Assessment
    Assessed the expected future competitiveness of U.S. refineries in PADDs 1, 2, 3, and 5.  Developed a base scenario and price outlook to evaluate future relative cash margin performance for over 90 refineries considering large expansion projects.  Examined effects of key sensitivities, such as light/heavy crude oil price spreads, effects of carbon regulation, and the price differential between gasoline and diesel.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Environmental, Pricing, Project Feasibility
  • Refinery Integration Analysis
    Using PRISM, investigated and analyzed the potential value that two refiners might capture through the consolidation of operations of two neighboring refineries.  The analysis was performed under multiple price scenarios.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Project Feasibility
  • West Coast Refining Strategy
    On behalf of a West Coast refining company, we estimated the cash margin of all PADD 5 refineries under four different price scenarios.  These competitive margin assessments were presented for 2015, 2020, and 2025 and accounted for the cost of compliance with CO2 regulations and other environmental regulations that were applicable to each scenario.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Project Feasibility
  • Refining Industry Overview
    Provided guidance as to opportunities within the U.S. petroleum fuels market for blending isobutanol. Developed a list of target refineries for blending of isobutanol into gasoline. Provided isobutanol gasoline blend valuations versus ethanol for several Midwest refineries.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Product Quality, Project Feasibility
  • U.S. Gasoline Study
    Performed an independent analysis to determine the potential supply and cost impacts of a new National Clean Gasoline Standard that would significantly lower the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) and sulfur allowed in gasoline. A refinery-by-refinery analysis was performed that considered each refinery's compliance options accounting for technical, strategic, market, and economic factors, and then estimated a likely response based on this information.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Product Quality, Project Feasibility
  • U.S. Gulf Coast Isobutanol Study
    Evaluated the gasoline blending economics for isobutanol versus ethanol for a U.S. Gulf Coast refinery. Calculated the value difference between isobutanol and ethanol in a low vapor pressure conventional gasoline.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Product Quality, Project Feasibility
  • U.S. Gasoline Study
    Performed an independent analysis to determine the potential supply and cost impacts of a new National Clean Gasoline Standard that would significantly lower the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) and sulfur allowed in gasoline. A refinery-by-refinery analysis was performed that considered each refinery’s compliance options and likely response considering technical, strategic, market, and economic factors.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • HF Alky Study Sensitivity Case
    Investigated and analyzed the impact of various potential restrictions on the use of HF alkylation technology in U.S. Refineries.
    PRISM Data or Analysis
  • Refinery Acquisition Study
    Provided client with five years of operating and financial data from the PRISM refinery database for use in evaluating a potential acquisition.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • PADD 1 Refining Study
    Provided a competitiveness analysis of refineries located in U.S. PADD 1, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Eastern Canada. Developed a price forecast and historical supply and demand balance. Provided a competitive ranking of a prospective acquisition of a refinery in the region being considered by the client.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Refinery Yield and Hydrogen Balances
    Provided client with yield and hydrogen balance estimate for a group of Canadian refineries using our proprietary PRISM modeling system.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing, Product Quality
  • Supply/Demand Forecast
    Prepared a forecast of U.S. refined product consumption and production using our proprietary PRISM refinery modeling system for the year 2012.
    PRISM Data or Analysis, Pricing
  • Gasoline Blending Data
    Provided gasoline and diesel blend pool quantity and quality data for 15 U.S. refineries for use in biofuel blending studies.
    PRISM Data or Analysis
  • Black Wax Crude Oil Market Study
    Reviewed qualities of Utah Black Wax crude oil versus other sweet crude oils to determine key criteria which would lead a refiner to process to Utah Black Wax crude oil. Used criteria to screen existing U.S. refineries for their ability/incentive to process the Utah Black Wax crude oil.
  • Refining Company Financial Analysis
    Prepared a financial analysis of an independent U.S. Refiner and Marketer in support of a valuation for a prospective buyer.
  • Refinery Due Dilgence Assessment
    Provided an initial assessment of a Gulf Coast refinery for possible acquisition by the client.  Provided estimated refinery yields and profitability.
  • Oil Disposition Study
    Developed economics of crude disposition alternatives for producer's growing production of light tight oil.  Alternatives included local and distant refining values with appropriate logistics costs.
    Crude Oil Valuation, LP/Planning Practice, Pipeline, Pricing
  • Refinery Acquisition Assessment
    Prepared an initial profitability assessment of two refineries for possible acquisition.  Identified key drivers to profitability and the strengths and weaknesses of each refinery.
  • Pacific Northwest Market Study
    Prepared a market study of the Pacific Northwest U.S., which included the refined products supply and demand balance and logistics systems.  The emphasis of the study was on current and future jet fuel supply and demand in the region. Evaluated jet fuel logistic systems for Pacific Northwest.
  • Refinery Yield Data
    Provided refinery yield data and variable operating costs for developing generic refining margins.  Refinery yield data sets included generic refineries located in the Midwest, U.S. East Coast, and U.S. Gulf Coast, with varying configurations.
  • Refinery Economic Study
    Evaluated various strategic options for a small Rockies area refinery, including an evaluation of a new diesel hydrotreater, refinery crude and product slate optimization, operating cost evaluation, and exit strategy and shutdown costs.  Refinery was shut down due to the small refinery ULSD exemption that was expiring.  Client wanted to evaluate the impact on the competitiveness of the refinery of adding a new diesel hydrotreating unit.
    Physical Asset Appraisal, Project Feasibility
  • Refinery Assessment for Acquisition
    Developed a cash flow model for valuation of a potential refinery acquisition.  Used PRISM data to estimate the refinery yields and operating costs.  Evaluated several refineries as part of acquiring the entire refining assets.
    Pricing
  • Refiner Acquisition Study
    Developed cash flow models of a U.S. refiner for a client interested in a potential acquisition.  Developed a price forecast and cash flow model for each refinery under consideration.  Utilized PRISM and publicly available data to model the charge and yield and economic performance of each refinery.  Cash flow models were used for valuation of the potential acquisition.
    Pricing
  • Refinery Acquisition Study
    Developed a cash flow model of a U.S. refinery for a client interested in a potential acquisition.  Utilized PRISM and publicly available data to model the charge and yield and economic performance of the refinery.  Cash flow model was used for valuation of the potential acquisition.
    Pricing
  • Canadian Refinery Competitiveness Study
    Evaluated the competitive position of several Canadian refineries located in Eastern Canada and Ontario.  Evaluated refinery configurations, crude oil slate and product yield, and profitability versus a group of regional competitor refineries.  Presented the crude oil and product logistics systems for each of the Canadian refineries being studied.