Baker & O'Brien, Inc.

Experience

Experience

 

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Asian Refinery Study
Assisted client in building PRISM refinery models of several Southeast Asian refineries.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Bitumen Economics/Refinery Reconfiguration
Using the PRISM refinery simulator, calculated the economics of replacing the current refinery crude slate with Canadian synthetic-bitumen (syn-bit) or condensate-bitumen (dil-bit) blends. Cases were considered with and without capital investments and potential investment costs were also estimated.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Crude Oil Valuation , Pricing , Product Quality
Bitumen Processing Study
Used our proprietary PRISM refinery model to determine the bitumen processing capability of several U.S. refineries.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Product Quality
Bitumen Valuation
Reviewed historical supply and demand of high TAN crude oil to the U.S. Gulf Coast refineries and addressed future trends which would impact a TAN discount.  Estimated a TAN discount using two methodologies:  Market based approach and Return on Capital investment approach.  Calculated the impact on bitumen value as a result of asphaltenes content.  Calculated the value added by a diluent recovery unit in a Canadian Oil Sands upgrader.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Crude Oil Valuation , Pricing , Product Quality
Carbon Dioxide Forecast
Using the PRISM refinery simulator, calculated and compared the carbon dioxide emissions for two processing options: (1) a bitumen upgrader in Canada combined with a refinery in the U.S. versus; (2) an integrated upgrader/refinery at the U.S. location.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Contractual Dispute - Property Tax
Prepared an analysis of property taxes relative to refining complexity for a number of refineries in a particular region, using public information, for hearings with a district appraisal board.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Ad Valorem Taxes , Physical Asset Appraisal , Pricing
Crude Oil Marketing Study
Provided support to a major Canadian crude oil pipeline transporter in the customization of the PRISM model, Baker & O'Brien's proprietary refining industry analysis tool, the company had licensed from Baker & O'Brien. Support included addition of crude oils of specific interest to the client.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pipeline , Product Quality
Crude Oil Valuation
Conducted a valuation for a new grade of Atlantic crude oil production, likely to be marketed to refineries in the U.S. East Coast and U.S. Gulf Coast. The study used PRISM for several specific refineries to calculate refinery breakeven values for the target crude in comparison to several competing grades. The analysis also included a historical review of the calculated relative crude refining values and the key price drivers affecting the value differences between grades.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Crude Oil Valuation , Pricing , Product Quality
Crude Oil Supply Study
Assisted client in constructing a crude oil supply balance for PADD II and developed incremental crude oil valuations for refineries in PADD II using PRISM, Baker & O'Brien's proprietary refining industry analysis tool.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Crude Oil Valuation , Pricing , Product Quality
Ethanol Impact on Refinery Margins
Assessed the impact to U.S. refining margins that would likely result from aggressive growth in ethanol production in the U.S. The study examined the likely distribution of ethanol by PADD under an aggressive ethanol growth scenario, the resulting gasoline supply and demand balances, and the consequent impact on margins over a 10-year period.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Financial Model
Developed a financial model for a large private equity firm to enable estimates of the future financial performance for the major business segments of a large international refining and petrochemical company.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Gasoline Market Study
Provided an analysis of the gasoline market in several mid-continent cities, including a twenty-year price forecast for a client considering market entry.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Grassroots Refinery Study
Built a grassroots refinery model using our proprietary PRISM refinery modeling system. Our client (a PRISM licensee) then used the model to evaluate the economics of various refinery configurations.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
GTL Diesel Blending Study
Performed several diesel blending studies in different refinery configurations using PRISM to calculate the Green House Gas benefits of using GTL diesel as a potential blendstock.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Product Quality
HF Alkylation Restrictions Impact Analysis
Investigated and analyzed the impact of various potential restrictions on the use of HF alkylation technology in U.S. Refineries.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Impact of Gasoline Toxics Regulations
Quantified the impact of proposed changes in gasoline toxics regulations (MSAT-II) on each individual refinery in the U.S. Using our proprietary PRISM refinery modeling system, calculated investment costs, changes in operating costs and product yields. Our report was presented in testimony before the U.S. E.P.A.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Expert Witness/Testimony , Pricing
Isobutanol Valuation Study
In order to assess the potential value of isobutanol as a gasoline blending component, performed simulations of refinery operations at a select group of West Coast refineries to calculate isobutanol value relative to blending ethanol into gasoline.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Project Feasibility
Market Impact of Low Sulfur Fuels Regulations
Using our proprietary PRISM refinery modeling system, performed a refinery-by-refinery analysis of potential production of low sulfur fuels by U.S. refineries.  Analysis included the seasonal productions of conventional and reformulated gasolines and ULSD and also included jet fuel and high sulfur diesel production.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Multi-Refinery Synergies
Analyzed the synergies and economic advantages of companies that operate multiple refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast.  Analysis included advantages in crude acquisition; turnaround and routine maintenance; feedstock and product transportation; efficient processing of intermediate streams; and optimal capital investment.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Refinery Evaluation
Used PRISM, Baker & O'Brien's proprietary refining industry analysis tool, to establish relative refinery profitability for Philadelphia refining system. Developed proposal to install instrumentation upgrades and be paid through a percentage of the improved economic value.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Project Feasibility
Supply/Demand Forecast
Constructed PRISM refinery models of all of the Australian refineries for use by a client for its strategic planning efforts.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Refinery Feasibility Study
Studied the possible development of a grassroots refinery that included an assessment of the refinery's potential feedstock, refined product yields, operating costs, and earnings capability.  Utilizing Baker & O'Brien's proprietary PRISM refining industry analysis software and data services, developed a ten-year outlook for refining margins/crack spreads, modeled alternative refinery configurations, and conducted a competitive assessment of the proposed refinery compared to key regional competitors.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Project Feasibility
RFS Infrastructure Study
Prepared a report for the American Petroleum Institute (API) that analyzed the potential logistics and infrastructure bottlenecks on a year-by-year basis to 2012 that could result from the industry trying to meet the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Product Quality , Project Feasibility
Refinery Competitiveness Study
Analyzed the relative competitiveness of a group of refineries in a specific region.  The study included an analysis of the local supply and demand balance, and a forecast of product movements into and out of the region.  Using our proprietary PRISM system, modeled each refinery in its current configuration and in its expected configurations eight years in the future.  Profit margins were calculated for each refinery under three different product price scenarios.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
U.S. Refining and Marketing Strategy
Advised a client on developing strategic options as it relates to future participation in the U.S. refining and marketing sector. Developed scenarios and assessed the medium term outlook for refining and marketing in the U.S. to support client objectives. Prepared short list of potential candidates for acquisition, and developed case studies and recommendations related to post merger integration activities. Advised client on appropriate timing for executing strategic objectives.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Refinery Oil Sands Processing Capability
Conducted refinery modeling and developed a preliminary assessment of the current and future capabilities of several U.S. refineries for processing diluted bitumen. Prepared initial screening estimates of likely "Phase 1" capital projects for significantly increasing the capability to process blended bitumen. Conducted analysis of likely future competitiveness of same refineries in the regions of operation.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Project Feasibility
Refining Strategic Analysis
Using PRISM, performed a competitor analysis of over 20 refineries that potentially competed with client refinery. Developed refinery cost curves under multiple crude oil and product price scenarios and identified key characteristics of those refineries which operated at the low end of the cost curve.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Refinery Operations Snapshot
Provided client with an estimate of actual crude runs by grade, product yields, and operating costs for a European refinery in 2007 based on our proprietary PRISM refinery database and simulator.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
U.S. Midcontinent Crude Valuation
Evaluated crude oil refining values and logistics for several targeted refineries in the U.S. midcontinent area.  Evaluated expected price parity points for domestic crude oils versus competing grades delivered to the refineries via pipeline.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Crude Oil Valuation , Pipeline , Pricing , Product Quality
Refinery Competitiveness Study
Prepared a competitive positioning analysis for a Midwest Refinery that incorporates the impacts of the proposed Cap and Trade legislation in Congress. Addressed the potential financial impacts of Cap and Trade on the refining industry in PADDs 2 and 3.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Environmental , Pricing , Project Feasibility
U.S. Refinery Competitiveness Assessment
Assessed the expected future competitiveness of U.S. refineries in PADDs 1, 2, 3, and 5.  Developed a base scenario and price outlook to evaluate future relative cash margin performance for over 90 refineries considering large expansion projects.  Examined effects of key sensitivities, such as light/heavy crude oil price spreads, effects of carbon regulation, and the price differential between gasoline and diesel.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Environmental , Pricing , Project Feasibility
Refinery Integration Analysis
Using PRISM, investigated and analyzed the potential value that two refiners might capture through the consolidation of operations of two neighboring refineries.  The analysis was performed under multiple price scenarios.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Project Feasibility
West Coast Refining Strategy
On behalf of a West Coast refining company, we estimated the cash margin of all PADD 5 refineries under four different price scenarios.  These competitive margin assessments were presented for 2015, 2020, and 2025 and accounted for the cost of compliance with CO2 regulations and other environmental regulations that were applicable to each scenario.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Project Feasibility
Refining Industry Overview
Provided guidance as to opportunities within the U.S. petroleum fuels market for blending isobutanol. Developed a list of target refineries for blending of isobutanol into gasoline. Provided isobutanol gasoline blend valuations versus ethanol for several Midwest refineries.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Product Quality , Project Feasibility
U.S. Gasoline Study
Performed an independent analysis to determine the potential supply and cost impacts of a new National Clean Gasoline Standard that would significantly lower the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) and sulfur allowed in gasoline. A refinery-by-refinery analysis was performed that considered each refinery's compliance options accounting for technical, strategic, market, and economic factors, and then estimated a likely response based on this information.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Product Quality , Project Feasibility
U.S. Gulf Coast Isobutanol Study
Evaluated the gasoline blending economics for isobutanol versus ethanol for a U.S. Gulf Coast refinery. Calculated the value difference between isobutanol and ethanol in a low vapor pressure conventional gasoline.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Product Quality , Project Feasibility
U.S. Gasoline Study
Performed an independent analysis to determine the potential supply and cost impacts of a new National Clean Gasoline Standard that would significantly lower the Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) and sulfur allowed in gasoline. A refinery-by-refinery analysis was performed that considered each refinery’s compliance options and likely response considering technical, strategic, market, and economic factors.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
HF Alky Study Sensitivity Case
Investigated and analyzed the impact of various potential restrictions on the use of HF alkylation technology in U.S. Refineries.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Acquisition Study
Provided client with five years of operating and financial data from the PRISM refinery database for use in evaluating a potential acquisition.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
PADD 1 Refining Study
Provided a competitiveness analysis of refineries located in U.S. PADD 1, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Eastern Canada. Developed a price forecast and historical supply and demand balance. Provided a competitive ranking of a prospective acquisition of a refinery in the region being considered by the client.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Refinery Yield and Hydrogen Balances
Provided client with yield and hydrogen balance estimate for a group of Canadian refineries using our proprietary PRISM modeling system.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing , Product Quality
Supply/Demand Forecast
Prepared a forecast of U.S. refined product consumption and production using our proprietary PRISM refinery modeling system for the year 2012.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Alberta Bitumen Valuation Study
Evaluated various approaches to valuing Canadian Oil Sands bitumen blends (DilBit). Approaches for valuation at a Hardisty, Alberta basis included: differential to a marker crude oil, refinery return on investment, parity to Mexican Maya and other approaches, including statistical regression. Evaluated approaches and potential marker crude oils and provided recommendations to client.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Crude Oil Valuation , Pricing
Isobutanol Value in Gasoline
Prepared initial screening study to assess the potential benefits and issues associated with marketing isobutanol as a gasoline-blend component within the U.S. Provided isobutanol gasoline blend valuations versus ethanol/alkylate for a list of target refineries.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Refinery Valuation and Synergy Analysis
On behalf of two international refining companies, investigated and estimated the potential value of synergies that might be realized upon the combination of the two refineries. Provided indication of value capture, based on criteria provided by companies.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Isobutanol Valuation Versus Ethanol
Prepared isobutanol vs. ethanol valuations for gasoline blending at several U.S. refineries. Assessed blend values for refineries producing reformulated gasoline, low vapor pressure gasoline, and California Air Resources Board (CARB) gasoline.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Shale Oil Market Study
Developed target markets, estimated values for upgraded shale oil in various U.S. refineries, and expected price netbacks to the project site. Developed crude oil supply and demand balances to determine which crude oils would be displaced and the expected pricing impacts.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Crude Oil Valuation , Pricing
Refinery Competitive Assessment
Conducted a refinery assessment for a natural gas supplier that was considering investing in infrastructure to enable one of their refining clients to increase capacity. The assessment included a refinery competitive analysis and cash flow forecasts under multiple scenarios.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Olefins Production Model
Developed a refinery olefins model that has the capability to predict propylene and butylene production and consumption for the U.S., at the individual refinery level. The model provides the user with an ability to toggle between different FCC conversion levels and to adjust several other key parameters.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Screening and Evaluation
Provided cash flow forecasts and indicative transaction values for select target refineries using PRISM charges and yields and client price forecasts.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Strategic Review of Refining Portfolio
For a large integrated refiner and marketer, assessed the historical performance of each refinery in the company's system, and evaluated key benchmark metrics against various selected peer groups. Reviewed each refinery's competitive position and highlighted the key factors that differentiated its performance. Quantified the performance gaps on a dollar-per-barrel basis, attributed the gaps to controllable or structural factors, and made recommendations for improving the controllable gaps.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Physical Asset Appraisal
PRISM Data
Provided PRISM data for the years 2007 and 2011 including new data extracted from PRISM.
PRISM Data or Analysis
U.S. Crude Oil Study
In response to increasing production of U.S. light crude oil, estimated a range of light crude oil prices that would be required in order for moderately complex refiners to break-even versus processing medium crude oil. Developed a forecast for North American crude oil production by major producing basin in order to understand the point in time at which essentially all light crude oil imports would be displaced from the North America market.
PRISM Data or Analysis
PRISM Refinery Data
Provided refinery capacity, throughput, product yield, and cash flow estimates for two European refineries in support of preliminary acquisition discussions.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Strategic Review
Provided a strategic review of a client's refinery with a focus on the potential opportunities and threats related to evolving crude oil supply dynamics and competitor expansions.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Crude Oil Market Study
Provided a forecast of North American crude oil production through 2030 by quality and by major producing region. Evaluated the extent to which the North American refining industry could accommodate a lighter crude oil slate. Identified expected change in crude flow patterns and imports.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Study
Prepared margin reports for four refineries to be used by the client for screening potential acquisition targets. Developed the yield and prices based on publicly-available data. Evaluated options to process Eagle Ford crude oil at one refinery and also build a distillate hydrocracker.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Hydrogen Usage
Provided hydrogen supply-demand data based on modeling completed for low-sulfur, low-RVP gasoline study.
PRISM Data or Analysis
PRISM Data Extracts
Provided PRISM data extracts for several refineries located near the Utica shale formation.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Hydrotreater Balance
Developed a charge and yield material and volumetric balance for a simple refinery containing a naphtha hydrotreater/catalytic reformer and diesel hydrotreater. Summarized feedstock and product properties.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Thermal Cracker/Lube Unit Yields
Prepared yields for a thermal cracker unit and lube oil extraction unit. Used PRISM unit models to assist in developing the yields and stream properties.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Competitiveness Study
Conducted a study of the competitiveness of a refining company's three refineries for a client contemplating the establishment of a partnership with the refining company.
PRISM Data or Analysis
High TAN Crude Oil Refinery Study
Identified U.S. Gulf Coast refineries processing high TAN crude oil. Estimated capital cost to convert heavy sour crude refineries currently processing low TAN crude oil to high TAN refineries. Considered a Canadian bitumen/diluent blended crude oil as the basis. Calculated the metallurgy and light ends processing costs associated with refinery conversion to high TAN crude oil.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pipeline
Refinery Due Diligence Support
Provided due diligence support for potential refinery acquisition. Developed cash flow models for valuing the refinery. Developed price forecast used in cash flow model. Evaluated key drivers and their impact on the refinery valuation.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Isobutanol Blending Study
Evaluated the gasoline blend value of isobutanol versus ethanol for a Midwest refinery. Calculated isobutanol blend values for summer and winter and for constrained and unconstrained gasoline production.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pricing
Refinery Hydrogen Demand Study
Quantified the hydrogen demand impact due to Gasoline Tier 3 regulations, the changing crude supply, and product demand in the USGC over a ten-year horizon.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Environmental
Gasoline Blending Data
Provided gasoline and diesel blend pool quantity and quality data for 15 U.S. refineries for use in biofuel blending studies.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Sulfur Study
Quantified the cost impact for Canadian refiners to comply with a 10 ppm average gasoline sulfur specification to comply with the U.S. Tier 3 gasoline regulation.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Environmental
Refinery Feasibility Study
Evaluated the economic feasibility for constructing a new grassroots refinery in the U.S. Mid-Continent. Developed a forecast for the feedstock and product prices. Utilized preliminary process design data to construct an economic model for two different refinery configurations. Identified the major variables which impacted the refinery economics.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Project Feasibility
Light Tight Oil (LTO) Refining Capacity
Conducted a study to assess the ability of the United States (U.S.) to absorb incremental light tight oil (LTO) production.  Evaluated potential for crude oil import substitution, refinery expansions, heavy oil blending and other means for increasing U.S. absorption of LTO.  Results were compared to various forecasts of domestic oil production growth.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Jet Fuel Market Study
Analyzed historical jet fuel prices in PADD 1 to show how interruptions in supply impact the market price.  Prepared a supply and demand balance for jet fuel in PADD 1.  Developed a jet fuel supply curve for Gulf Coast and PADD 3 refiners into PADD 1.
PRISM Data or Analysis , LP/Planning Practice , Pricing
PRISM Refinery Data
Provided historical refinery cash flow estimates for use by the client's credit department in assessing counterparty risk.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Acquisition Assessment
Provided initial due diligence for a potential refinery acquisition. Evaluated refinery profitability and strengths and weaknesses. Developed forecast for future refinery profitability. 
PRISM Data or Analysis
St James Louisiana Crude Supply Study
Analyzed crude supply sources and pipeline flows for the Southern Louisiana refining market in conjunction with a potential pipeline acquisition.  Forecasted crude supply availability by grade in the St. James trading hub and analyzed impact of new crude oil pipelines in the market.
PRISM Data or Analysis
Refinery Acquisition Screening Study
Developed a refinery acquisition matrix comparing quantitative and qualitative aspects of various refineries.  Utilized PRISM data to compare relative profitability and charge and yield results for various refineries under consideration.
PRISM Data or Analysis , Pipeline